Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.