Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
