The Way The Bizarre Season Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Blueprint.

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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